gold pendulumGold is often touted as a must-have investment for the most intense of risk-mitigation situations, a “when all else fails” hedging instrument. Indeed, pick an ailment: Inflation? Hedge with gold. Economic and political crises? Hedge with gold. Collapse of modern society? Say it with me, folks, “Hedge with gold”. With the global economy as shaky as it is, multiple countries in one crisis or another, and plenty of uncertainty as to what the future holds to go around, gold continues to make the rounds as a necessary holding despite the fact that its value in US dollar terms has been steadily declining over the last four years after reaching a peak in 2011 of almost $1,900 an ounce. In the wake of the Fed’s recent decision to stand pat on interest rates and gold’s subsequent jump today, here are 3 reasons to avoid gold, both as a physical or paper holding, apart from a very small percentage of a well-balanced and diversified passive or lazy investment portfolio:

  • It’s a highly emotional and psychological asset
  • There’s no historical evidence that it hedges well against any risk
  • It has very little practical use

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crude oil rigPreviously we reviewed how, historically speaking, gold has proven to be a rather poor hedge against inflation, despite the reality that many continue to promote it for just that purpose. What, then, is a reasonable inflation-hedging investment vehicle? It just so happens that a historically-significant and helpful one is also a commodity – crude oil, the most widely and heavily traded commodity in existence today. Historical data indicates that it functions better than most other proposed hedges out there, especially gold. Continue reading

Tilting Spinning TopTilting, when done intentionally, is generally understood to be the act of pursuing an otherwise seemingly passive or lazy investment approach and then loading up on some specific additional investment so that your portfolio is more heavily weighted or biased toward that investment. This is done for the purposes of trying to earn greater return than the purely passive approach might afford you, i.e. you are attempting to outperform the market. For instance, you may buy an S&P index fund as part of your portfolio and then purchase additional shares of Apple separately. You are then tilted toward Apple in particular and technology more generally because your S&P index fund already contains shares of Apple, giving you exposure to the company and its sector. While there is absolutely nothing wrong with purposely tilting as a practice so long as you understand the risks – it’s your business – you must be wary that you not end up inadvertently doing it in your pursuit of passive portfolio diversification. If you never meant to tilt and your real objective was simply passive diversification all along, then you have done yourself a disservice without realizing it by exposing yourself to unnecessary risk. By paying careful attention to a fund’s holdings during fund selection, you can avoid this. Continue reading

mount-merapi-113620_1280To say that there are some serious headwinds that we as the collective investment community must face these days is putting it lightly. Between financial downturns and outright crises including Japan’s return to recession, Greece’s distaste for austerity, and Russia’s woes with sanctions, collapsing energy prices, and a devastated ruble; the perceived need (not unanimous) for quantitative easing (QE) in Europe eclipsing $1 trillion EUR; stark observations that the world economy is shrinking; and the actions of central banks that catch us on the toilet such as that of Switzerland removing the cap on its currency vis-รก-vis the Euro, there is much to digest. How do you protect and defend your financial positions, your financial worth, your current and future holdings against such startling occurrences and circumstances? How do you protect and defend your financial, and hence personal, goals? You can do so by ensuring that you are passively invested in a well-diversified portfolio of broad-based assets with low intercorrelations, in-line with your true risk profile and investment horizon, and take advantage of the might it affords you. Continue reading

water-balance-280810Having read about how rebalancing can help you enter the financial markets with confidence irregardless of what may be around the corner, you may be wondering as to what is meant by the term in the first place. It’s fairly simple. Ideally, you are invested in a well-balanced portfolio comprised of specific allocations to certain investment vehicles that have low intercorrelations. Over your investment time horizon, you seek to maintain those allocations in order to control risk while striving to achieve your investment objectives given your particular investment profile. Continue reading

man-96868To many, the markets look expensive right now. If you’ve done a thorough job understanding and describing your investment objectives and your capacity to invest and bear risk, and you have money at the ready, you might be sitting on the sidelines wondering what to do right about now, especially as the markets see-saw. How to make a market entry? Do you wait for a big correction before you purchase anything or do you plow forward? It’s natural to feel hesitant. Nobody enjoys buying into something only to see it decrease in value in short order. It’s a sure way to feel like a sucker. Then again, if you wait for the markets to go down and they don’t, you’ve just shot yourself in the foot and missed out on returns. Instead of attempting to predict or time the markets, enter them with confidence and then rebalance your portfolio as necessary to deal with what comes next, including any potential corrections. Continue reading